by Eric Montpetit, Antoine Claude Lemor, Maria Alejandra Costa, and Louis-Robert Beaulieu-Guay
Some might say that people can grow accustomed to almost anything—even the worst crises. Indeed, human beings learn to cope with disruptions that initially provoke serious fears, but over time become a “new normal.” This capacity to adapt can be so strong that it undermines the influence of expert knowledge guiding decisions in times of crisis. That is precisely what we observed in Quebec (Canada) during the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed in our recent article published in Policy & Politics.
Experts often believe that raising alarms about an impending catastrophe is an effective way to heighten awareness among both the public and policymakers regarding the risks of inaction. While fear-based strategies can yield results early in a crisis, they may become counterproductive later on.
In March 2020, many epidemiologists warned decision-makers that, without the swift implementation of strict lockdown measures, COVID-19 would spread exponentially—leading to a horrific number of casualties. In several countries, immediate lockdowns followed, with little consideration for the associated economic costs or unprecedented restrictions on individual freedoms. By highlighting the gravity of the threat, epidemiologists initially exerted considerable influence on both the public and policymakers.
Over time, however, as each new wave of COVID-19 was accompanied by dire epidemiological projections, fear gave way to routine. Inevitably tied to alarming forecasts, the beginnings of each wave fuelled public fatalism. Many started to question whether expert advice adequately accounted for everyone’s well-being. Public fatigue over health measures set in, and support for expert-informed government policies eroded. Governments then began aligning their decisions with public preferences, which were increasingly at odds with expert recommendations. As a result, experts saw their influence wane—a key finding of our study.
This erosion of expert influence merits closer attention. Expert knowledge and scientific information are vital for shaping public policy in both crisis and non-crisis contexts. Two interrelated lines of query arise from our study. (1) If the public simply becomes accustomed to crises, leading to a decline in expert influence, policies may be deprived of important scientific insights and crises may thus worsen. (2) In contrast, if experts overstate risks to boost their immediate influence and miss the mark with their forecasts—thus stoking unwarranted fears—they may undermine their own credibility. In this case, not only would expert influence during crises be jeopardised, but also the public’s general trust in experts outside of crises, depriving policies on all sorts of topics of key information in the longer run.
These considerations underscore the balance experts must strike when advising policymakers: effectively conveying urgent risks while preserving their long-term credibility. Our article in Policy & Politics provides an empirical foundation on this matter and illustrates how catastrophic projections and crisis habituation shape experts’ influence on public policy. The importance of these findings for scientists, experts and policymakers is to highlight the need of adapting projections and knowledge communication strategies as crises unfold.
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You can read the original research in Policy & Politics at
Lemor, A. C., Costa, M. A., Beaulieu-Guay, L., and Montpetit, É. (2025). Why did the influence of experts erode during the COVID-19 pandemic?. Policy & Politics (published online ahead of print 2025), available from: < https://doi.org/10.1332/03055736Y2024D000000064>
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