by Asli Unan
In a recent article published in Policy & Politics, Asli Unan investigates how local politicians’ preferences can shift during early-stage policy adoption, particularly in response to multidimensional policy environments. Focusing on the case of asylum dispersal in Greece, the study moves beyond traditional explanations that frame policy reversals as responses to electoral pressure. Instead, it highlights how additional incentives—such as financial compensation or increased local control—can prompt local elites to reverse their initial preferences, even in the absence of voter feedback.
Unan presents findings from a two-stage survey and conjoint experiment with elected Greek municipal officials. Participants were first asked whether they would be willing to host asylum seekers above a 1 per cent population threshold in a simple, single-dimensional policy framing. They were then exposed to more complex policy packages involving added dimensions such as funding, site control, and service provision. Results showed a modest but statistically meaningful increase in support—rising from 42 to 44 per cent—once the policy was embedded in a multidimensional context.
Importantly, the analysis reveals that ideological orientation played a role: centre- and right-leaning politicians were significantly more likely to reverse their initial positions when presented with additional incentives. The study develops the idea of “preference reversals” as a precursor to more visible policy reversals, allowing Unan to isolate the internal decision-making processes that occur before public shifts in policy stance. Rather than viewing reversals as purely reactive or politically damaging, the article suggests that in the early phases of policy development, reversals may instead reflect pragmatic engagement with a complex and shifting set of trade-offs.
The article contributes to policy scholarship by demonstrating how preference formation among elites is shaped by more than ideology or electoral calculus. By placing the emphasis on multidimensional incentives—such as site type, administrative control, and the proximity of camps to urban centres—Unan brings nuance to how we understand policy flexibility during crises. The article also offers a useful empirical lens for examining elite responsiveness in areas like refugee governance, where urgency and complexity often dominate the policy environment.
This research raises important questions about the long-term implications of such preference reversals. While they may indicate adaptability in the face of crisis, they also point to the potential instability of early policy commitments. As multidimensional incentives increasingly shape the contours of public decision making, understanding how and why elites change course becomes a critical task for both scholars and practitioners.
You can read the original research in Policy & Politics at
Unan, A. (2025). Preference reversals in early policy adoption. Policy & Politics (published online ahead of print 2025), available from: < https://doi.org/10.1332/03055736Y2025D000000076>
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