Inferential reasoning and abductive approaches to policy analysis under uncertainty 


by M. Ramesh and Michael Howlett

Policy analysis is often expected to deliver clear, evidence-based recommendations. Yet many contemporary policy problems—from climate change to pandemics—are characterised by uncertainty, complexity, and disagreement about both facts and values. In their recent article, Inferential Reasoning in Policy Analysis: Knowledge Use under Uncertainty and Complexity, M. Ramesh and Michael Howlett examine how policy analysts can generate useful advice under these conditions and argue for a greater role for inferential and abductive reasoning in policy analysis. 

The limits of conventional policy analysis 

Much traditional policy analysis assumes relatively stable conditions in which analysts can gather reliable evidence, clearly define policy problems, and evaluate options using established tools such as cost–benefit analysis or impact assessment. Ramesh and Howlett suggest that these assumptions often break down in contemporary policy environments. 

Many policy challenges combine empirical uncertainty with political disagreement and strong value conflicts. Under such conditions, technical analytical tools may struggle to produce timely or actionable guidance. At the same time, approaches that rely primarily on participatory deliberation can face different challenges, including difficulties integrating empirical evidence into decision-making. 

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Highlights collection from Policy & Politics: free to access from 1st May – 31st August 2026 on Environmental policy through theory: collaboration, narratives, evidence and design 


by Allegra Fullerton (Digital Associate Editor) and Sarah Brown (Senior Journals Manager)

The articles featured here demonstrate how collaborative governance, policy narratives, evidence use and policy design shape environmental policy, revealing how coordination, meaning, knowledge and calibration interact to influence policy targets, implementation pathways and outcomes. What links the four contributions is not only their theoretical pluralism but also a shared methodological ambition: each pushes an established policy process framework in new empirical directions, drawing on approaches ranging from evolutionary game modelling to natural language processing and multilevel Bayesian regression.  

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Calibration in Policy Design: Rethinking Targets of Energy Efficiency Rebates

By Ryan P. Scott, Chris M. Messer, Adam Mayer and Tami C. Bond 


In this article, the authors explore the concept of calibration in policy design, highlighting how policymakers adjust the scope and design policy interventions to match political, social, and administrative realities. Building on previous work, the authors argue that policies designed with multiple targets might have mechanisms of change quite different from the obvious mechanism of the most visible policy instrument. 

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Highlights from our most popular Policy & Politics articles of 2025 exploring narratives, design, and democracy in policymaking

by Sarah Brown and Allegra Fullerton

Two women, the authors of this blog.

In celebration of the broad aims of Policy & Politics, we decided to focus this quarter’s highlights collection on our three most popular reads of 2025 to date. Spanning narratives, policy design, and direct democracy, these articles beautifully illustrate the journal’s breadth of scope — unusual among top-ranked outlets in the field.

So, without further ado, here’s a précis of each to whet your appetite for the full research articles, which are free to view until the end of January 2026.

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How do policy and design intersect? Three relationships

by Liz Richardson, Catherine Durose, Lucy Kimbell and Ramia Mazé

In a recent article published in Policy & Politics, Liz Richardson, Catherine Durose, Lucy Kimbell and Ramia Mazé explore how the fields of policy and design relate to one another — and why the common framing of ‘design for policy’ may be too narrow to capture the full range of interactions between the two. While design has become an increasingly visible feature of policymaking practice in recent years, the authors argue that existing accounts tend to list design methods (such as prototyping or visualisation) without fully exploring the purpose and politics behind their use.

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Which criteria guide constructions of ‘deservingness’ in public policy?

by Sonja Blum and Johanna Kuhlmann

In public policy, target group constructions are crucial. Groups are granted additional rights, while rights from other groups are withdrawn, certain groups of people or other entities are regulated, while burdens elsewhere are lifted. As Anne Schneider and Helen Ingram’s work (1993) told us, such decisions are related to target groups’ power position, but also to their positive or negative construction.

But how do these social constructions work, and based on which criteria are target groups of public policy perceived as deserving or undeserving? These exact criteria guiding social constructions of groups have remained rather elusive in extant public policy research.

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Unlocking Collaborative Innovation: Practical Tips for Policymakers to Drive Policy Change

by Carla Cordoncillo Acosta and Mireia Borrell

Collaborative innovation is gaining recognition as a critical strategy for public organisations, especially when addressing complex “wicked” problems. These challenges demand fresh thinking, and collaboration—particularly in diverse teams—can make all the difference. By bringing together varied perspectives, policymakers can unlock creative solutions that might not emerge in isolated decision-making. Working collaboratively not only expands the range of options but also makes thinking “outside the box” more productive and impactful.

Despite its promise, the concept of “collaborative innovation” is still mostly grounded in theory. Empirical studies are limited, and when they do exist, they often rely on case studies that lump all forms of collaboration together. This approach overlooks the nuances of different collaborative arrangements and makes it difficult to understand how specific types of collaboration contribute to innovation. Some research hints at distinctions among setups, linking them to innovation in theory, but no one has systematically compared their actual impact.

This is where our study steps in. For policymakers to truly harness the potential of collaboration, they need clear evidence about which actors to involve and how. In our recent article published in Policy & Politics entitled “Fostering innovation through collaboration: A comparison of collaborative approaches to policy design”— we examine the innovative potential of different collaborative arrangements. As expected, we find that collaboration—whether within government or with non-public actors—is a game-changer. But there’s a catch: not all contributors bring equal value to the table. Some actors possess greater capacity to innovate than others.

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Policy & Politics Highlights collection on Policy Feedback November 2023 – January 2024 – free to access 

By Sarah Brown, Journal Manager with Dr. Elizabeth Koebele, co-editor


The theme of this quarter’s highlights collection from Policy & Politics is Policy Feedback Theory (PFT), an increasingly popular theory of the policy process that is featuring more regularly on public policy syllabi. In a nutshell, PFT considers how past policies (re)shape the political context in which new policies are formed. 

Our first article in this collection has been one of our most popular and highly cited since its publication in 2022: New pathways to paradigm change in public policy: Combining insights from policy design, mix and feedback by Sebastian Sewerin, Benjamin Cashore and Michael Howlett. Here, the authors argue that policy science scholarship is better at explaining policy change in retrospect, rather than formulating forward-looking recommendations about how to achieve major or paradigmatic change. Potentially even more concerning, existing scholarship emphasises the importance of external shocks in initiating major policy change, which doesn’t augur well for proactively tackling the major problems of our time such as climate change. In their article, the authors identify two conceptual and theoretical gaps that might limit how policy scholars think about major or paradigmatic change: 1) a lack of shared understanding of what ‘policy change’ is, and 2) a focus on (changing) policies in isolation rather than on policies as part of complex policy mixes. Against this background, they argue that combining insights from policy design, policy mix and policy feedback literature allows us to identify other pathways towards initiating and achieving policy change. 

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COVID-19 May Have Increased Support for Social Welfare in the US

Wehde and Crabtree

Wesley Wehde & David Crabtree

Members of the media and the US president. Joe Biden himself, have suggested that Americans’ experience with COVID-19 and federal response policy may have increased support for social welfare. Much to their credit, our recent scholarly research into this question which has just been published in our article for Policy & Politics found evidence that this may be the case.

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Policy & Politics highlights collection May – July 2022 – free to access.

BROWN_SarahQuarterly highlights collection 3rd May – 31st July 2022

In this quarter’s highlights collection, we feature three articles that provide a range of insights from different contexts on the politics of governance. Continue reading